JMCC Public Opinion Poll No. 29 - Part I
On Palestinian Attitudes Towards the Peace Process and Oslo
August 1998
The poll indicates continued decline in support for the peace process and the Oslo accords. The decline began to emerge about a year ago.
The decline shown this year is a departure from the first four years of Oslo, when the Palestinian public showed consistent support for the Palestinian-Israeli peace process despite sudden and dramatic changes in the political and economic. Greater opposition to Oslo has been drawn not only from former supporters, but from people who previously had no opinion.
The negative trend can be measured through three main indicators: support for Arafat, his faction Fateh and the peace process itself.
In December 96, Arafat was considered the most trusted politician by 42% of those surveyed. Now the number has declined to 32.6%.
In October 96, Fateh's Support was measured at 42%. That number has fallen to 34.4%
In December 96, support for the peace process was 78.1%. Now 55.6% expressed strong or lukewarm support for the peace process.
Moreover, Palestinians opposing Oslo accords increased from 23.1% in November 1997 to reach 36% this August; the increase in opposition came at the expense of those who had know position regarding Oslo, which was 4.1% in November 1997 going down to 1.2% this August.
Results were obtained through a random sample poll of 1,192 people throughout the West Bank and Gaza conducted on August 27-28, 1998.
A random sample of 1192 people over the age of 18 were interviewed face-to-face throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip on 27,28 August 1998. The interviews were conducted in randomly selected homes, and the subjects inside each home were also selected randomly accordingg to Kish tables. The interviews were conducted in 60 sampling points chosen randomly according to population.
In the West Bank, 757 people were surveyed from the following areas: Jenin: Jenin, Jenin & RC, Toubas & Aqaba, ‘Arabeh, Ya’abad, Silat al-Harthia. Nablus: Nablus, Salfit,, ‘Asira & RC, Beit Fureek, Hiwara. Tulkarem: Tulkarem & RC, Beit Leed, ‘Illar. Qalqilia: Qalqilia. Bethlehem: Bethlehem, Beit Jala, Beit Sahour, Al Kgader & RC, Hussan & Bateer. Hebron: ‘Hebron, Hebron+ RC, al-Samou’, Idna, Bani Na’im, Hal houl, al-Dhaharia. Jerusalem: Old City, A-Ram, Dahyat al-Bareed, Beit Hanina, Silwan, Ras al-Amoud, al -’Issawia, Abu Dees, Biddu & Beit Sureek. Jericho: Jericho. Ramallah: Ramallah, al-Bireh, Kobar+Jalzoun, Beitunia, al-Mizra’ al-Shaqia.
In the Gaza Strip, 435 people were surveyed from: Gaza: al-Rimal, Nasser, Sheikh Radwan, Sabra +Zeitoon, Shujayeh,Nazleh, al Daraj+al-tufah, Shati RC, Jabalia, Jabalia RC, Bet Lahia, Beit Hanoun, Deir al Balah& RC, Nusseirat RC, Magazi RC, Khan Younis, Khan Younis Rc, Abassan, Rafah, Rafah RC, Tal al-Sultan
The margin of error is 3 percent, with a confidence level of 95.
Q.1 How optimistic are you towards the future in general?
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
| Very optimistic |
6.0% |
5.4% |
6.9% |
| Optimistic |
62.6% |
62.6% |
62.5% |
| Pessimistic |
19.8% |
19.8% |
19.8% |
| Very pessimistic |
9.9% |
10.6% |
8.7% |
| No answer |
1.7% |
1.6% |
2.1% |
Q.2 After 5 years of implementing Oslo agreements for the transitional period, to what extent do you support or oppose these agreements?
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip | |
| Strongly support |
9.9% |
10.3% |
9.2% |
| Cautiously support |
52.9% |
53.2% |
52.4% |
| Oppose |
36.0% |
35.3% |
37.2% |
| No answer |
1.2% |
1.2% |
1.2% |
Q.3 In general, do you support or oppose the Palestinian-Israeli peace process between the Palestinians and Israel?
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
| Strongly support |
10.9% |
11.0% |
10.8% |
| Somewhat support |
44.7% |
45.0% |
44.1% |
| Strongly oppose |
20.6% |
19.8% |
21.8% |
| Somewhat oppose |
16.4% |
16.5% |
16.3% |
| No opinion |
2.9% |
2.9% |
3.0% |
| No answer |
4.6% |
4.8% |
4.0% |
Q. 4 Which Palestinian personality do you trust most?
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
| Yasser Arafat |
32.6% |
31.2% |
34.9% |
| Ahmad Yaseen |
6.6% |
6.9% |
6.2% |
| Haidar Abdul Shafi |
6.5% |
6.3% |
6.9% |
| Hanan Ashrawi |
3.5% |
3.6% |
3.4% |
| Saeb Erekat |
2.9% |
2.5% |
3.7% |
| Faisal Husseini |
2.5% |
2.8% |
2.1% |
| George Habash |
2.3% |
2.6% |
1.8% |
| Mahamoud Abbas |
1.4% |
1.2% |
1.8% |
| Other personalities |
8.0% |
6.1% |
10.2% |
| I do not trust anyone |
25.4% |
25.9% |
24.6% |
| No answer |
8.3% |
10.9% |
4.4% |
Q.5 Which Palestinian political or religious faction do you trust most?
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
| Fateh |
34.4% |
30.3% |
41.6% |
| Hamas |
13.4% |
12.9% |
14.3% |
| PFLP |
3.7% |
3.7% |
3.7% |
| Islamic Jihad |
1.8% |
1.5% |
2.3% |
| Other Isalmic factions |
1.3% |
1.7% |
0.5% |
| Other factions |
3.3% |
4.3% |
1.5% |
| Do not trust anyone |
28.9% |
30.9% |
25.5% |
| No answer |
13.2% |
14.7% |
10.6% |